Poland: Country Election Risk Assessment (CERA)

The Poland CERA assesses the FIMI threat environment ahead of the 2025 Polish presidential elections, drawing on lessons from the 2023 parliamentary elections and identifying the Doppelganger and Pravda networks as the primary operational threats. The assessment maps the specific anti-EU and anti-Ukraine narratives that Russian actors have deployed in Polish-language information spaces, and identifies the domestic political dynamics that make Poland's electorate susceptible to particular narrative families.

Poland's position as NATO's eastern flank and its large, politically engaged population make it a high-priority target for Russian information operations. The CERA's threat assessment is accordingly detailed and operationally specific — identifying the channels, actors, and narrative strategies through which threats are likely to manifest.