Moldova: Country Election Risk Assessment (CERA)

The Moldova CERA provides a pre-election threat assessment for the 2025 Moldovan parliamentary elections — one of the most FIMI-exposed electoral environments in Europe, given Moldova's geopolitical position, its divided information environment, and Russia's demonstrated willingness to deploy disinformation, cyber operations, and illicit financing to influence Moldovan political outcomes. The assessment identifies three primary threat vectors: illicit financing of political actors, the weaponisation of disinformation through controlled media networks, and cyber-enabled influence operations.

Moldova has become one of the most important case studies in European FIMI analysis precisely because it is a small democracy facing a large-scale, multi-instrument Russian interference campaign with relatively limited institutional resources. The CERA's detailed threat mapping provides both an intelligence baseline for the election period and a template for risk assessment methodology applicable to other vulnerable democracies.